Michele Mancini

Welcome to my webpage!
I am Michele Mancini, Deputy Head of the Emerging Markets and World Trade Division at the Bank of Italy.

My research interests are international trade and global value chains. 

Google Scholar – My IDEAS – VoxEU profile – CV
Contact me: michele.mancini (at) bancaditalia.it

RECENT WORKS

• How Global are Local Value Chains?, with A. Borin, F. P. Conteduca, F. Leone, P. Zoi, CESifo Working Paper, No. 12271. [link] R&R
  
• Inputs in distress: Geoeconomic fragmentation and firms’ sourcing, 2026, with Panon, Lebastard, Borin, Caka Tofani, Cariola, Essers, Gentili, Linarello, Padellini, Requena, Timini, European Economic Review.
  
• Fragmentation and the Future of Global Value Chains, with Conteduca, Romanini, Giglioli, Borin, Attinasi, Boeckelmann, Meunier, Occasional Papers, Bank of Italy, 932 [link] Featured in the CEPR ebook edited by R. Baldwin and M. Ruta, The state of globalisation. Submitted
  
• Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration : A Measurement Perspective, 2025, with Borin, Taglioni, World Bank Economic Review.
  
• I have coordinated with Maria Grazia Attinasi (ECB) theESCB Report on Geoeconomic Trade Fragmentationwith contributions from 40 ESCB economists. Check it out. A summary is also available on VoxEU.

List of background papers of the ESCB Report I’ve contributed to:

>Fragmentation and the Future of Global Value Chains, with Conteduca, Romanini, Giglioli, Borin, Attinasi, Boeckelmann, Meunier, Occasional Papers, Bank of Italy, 932 [link] Featured in the CEPR ebook edited by R. Baldwin and M. Ruta, The state of globalisation.
>Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing, 2024, Occasional Papers, no. 861, Bank of Italy. with Lebastard, Panon, Borin, Caka, Cariola, Essers, Gentili, Linarello, Padellini, Requena and Timini [link] [SUERF] [ECB Blog] [VoxEU]
>Trade Fragmentation Unveiled: Five Facts on the Reconfiguration of Global, US, and EU trade, with Conteduca, Giglioli, Giordano, Panon, Occasional Papers, no. 881, Bank of Italy [link] [Journal version].
>European firms facing geopolitical risk: Evidence from recent Eurosystem surveys, 2024, with Balteanu, Bottone, Fernandez-Cerezo, Ioannou, Kutten, Morris [VoxEU]
>Sourcing governance and De-risking Strategies in Europe: a comparative study of Germany, Italy, and Spain, 2024, with Bottone, M., Boffelli, A., Pegoraro, D., Kutten, A., Balteanu, I., & Quintana, J. [WP version].

Tools & data on global value chains

• World Bank WITS Global Value Chains Database.
  A comprehensive database of up-to-date GVC participation measures.
  Overview – Visualizations – Bulk download
  Based on Borin, Mancini, Taglioni, 2025, World Bank Economic Review.
  
• Positioning in Global Value Chains: World Map and Indicators.
  A comprehensive database of up-to-date positioning measures in GVC.
  Check it out here.
  Based on Mancini et al., 2024, World Bank Economic Review.
  
• Global Value Chains and Value-Added Trade Analysis in Stata: icio.
  icio is a user-friendly Stata tool to compute measures of GVC participation and trade in value-added. Check it out here.
  Based on Belotti, Borin, Mancini, 2021, Stata Journal, 21(3) [slides].

SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
IN PEER-REVIEWED JOURNALS

• Inputs in distress: Geoeconomic fragmentation and firms’ sourcing, 2026, with Panon, Lebastard, Borin, Caka Tofani, Cariola, Essers, Gentili, Linarello, Padellini, Requena, Timini, European Economic Review.
• Supply chain decoupling in green products: A granular input-output analysis, 2025, with Attinasi, Boeckelmann, de Castro Martins, Meunier, Borin, Conteduca, Energy Economics.
• Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration : A Measurement Perspective, 2025, with Borin, Taglioni, World Bank Economic Review.
• Positioning in Global Value Chains: World Map and Indicators. A new dataset available for GVC analyses World Bank Economic Review, 2024, with Montalbano, Nenci, Vurchio.
• Measuring what matters in value-added trade. Economic Systems Research, 2023. with Borin, Best 2023-2024 paper – Sir Richard Stone Prize International-Input Output Association.
• EU transfers and Euroscepticism: can’t buy me love?
  Economic Policy, 2021, vol. 36, with Borin, Macchi.

Michele Mancini economist global value chains international trade

Michele Mancini economist global value chains international trade icio

OTHER PUBLICATIONS
IN PEER-REVIEWED JOURNALS

• Trade Sanctions with no Trade:China’s Weaponization of Value Chains Against Lithuania, 2026, with Savini Zangrandi, Journal of Geoeconomics, forthcoming.
• Trade Fragmentation Unveiled: Five Facts on the Reconfiguration of Global, US, and EU trade, 2025, with Conteduca, Giglioli, Giordano, Panon, Journal of Industrial and Business Economics.
• Trade and Economic Activity: Non-Linear Modelling and Forecasting
  Journal of Forecasting, 2024, with Borin and Gazzani.
• The real-time impact of the war on Russian imports: a synthetic control method approach. [WP]
  World Trade Review, 2024, with Borin, Conteduca.
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s Participation in Global Value Chains: 1995-2021.
  The World Economy, 2023. with Mattoo, Taglioni, Winkler.
• Trade Decoupling from Russia.
  International Economics, 2023, vol. 175. with Borin, Conteduca, Di Stefano, Gunnella, Panon [WP]
• Reshoring and plant closures in Covid-19 times: Evidence from Italian MNEs.
  International Economics, 2022, vol. 172. with Di Stefano, Giovannetti, Marvasi, Vannelli.
• icio –   Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output tables.
  Stata Journal, 2021, 21(3). with Belotti, Borin. [slides]
• FDI and firm performance: an empirical analysis on Italian firms. Review of World Economics, 2016, 152(4), with Borin.